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4) The result of each stage in the supply chain making its own separate forecast is 5) When all stages of a supply chain produce a collaborative forecast, it tends to be 6) The resulting accuracy of a collaborative forecast enables supply chains to be 7) Leaders in many supply chains have started moving 8) Production can utilize forecasts to make decisions concerning 9) Marketing can utilize forecasts to make decisions concerning 10) Finance can utilize forecasts to make decisions concerning 11) Personnel can utilize forecasts to make decisions concerning 12) Mature products with stable demand 13) When either the supply of raw materials or the demand for the finished product is highly variable, forecasting and the accompanying managerial decisions 14) One of the characteristics of forecasts is 15) One of the characteristics of forecasts is 16) One of the characteristics of forecasts is 17) Forecasts are always wrong and therefore 18) Long-term forecasts are usually less accurate than short-term forecasts because 19) Aggregate forecasts are usually more accurate than disaggregate forecasts because 20) In general, the further up the supply chain a company is (or the further they are from the consumer), 22) Forecasting methods that are primarily subjective and rely on human judgment are known as 23) Forecasting methods that use historical demand to make a forecast are known as 24) Forecasting methods that assume that the demand forecast is highly correlated with certain factors in the environment (e.g., the state of the economy, interest rates, etc.) to make a forecast are known as 25) Forecasting methods that imitate the consumer choices that give rise to demand to arrive at a forecast are known as 26) Qualitative forecasting methods are most appropriate when 27) Time series forecasting methods are most appropriate when C) the basic demand pattern does not vary significantly from one year to the next. 28) Which forecasting methods are the simplest to implement and can serve as a good starting point for a demand forecast? 29) Which of the following is not a step to help an organization perform effective forecasting? 30) The goal of any forecasting method is to Describe the basic characteristics of forecasts that managers should be aware.
The forecast of demand forms the basis for all strategic and planning decisions in a supply chain. For pull processes, a manager must forecast what customer demand will be in order to plan the level of available capacity and inventory. The result when each stage in the supply chain makes its own separate forecast is often a match between supply and demand because these forecasts are often very different. Leaders in many supply chains have started moving toward collaborative forecasting to improve their ability to match supply and demand. Mature products with stable demand are usually the most difficult to forecast. Forecasting and the accompanying managerial decisions are extremely difficult when either the supply of raw materials or the demand for the finished product is highly variable. Forecasts should include both the expected value of the forecast and a measure of forecast error. Aggregate forecasts are usually more accurate than disaggregate forecasts, as they tend to have a smaller standard deviation of error relative to the mean. Collaborative forecasting based on sales to the end customer can help enterprises further up the supply chain reduce forecast error. Qualitative forecasting methods are most appropriate when there is good historical data available or when experts do not have market intelligence that is critical in making the forecast. Time series forecasting methods are the most difficult methods to implement. Causal forecasting methods find a correlation between demand and environmental factors and use estimates of what environmental factors will be to forecast future demand. The forecast error measures the difference between the forecast and the estimate. The goal of any forecasting method is to predict the systematic component of demand and estimate the random component. In adaptive forecasting, the estimates of level, trend, and seasonality are updated after each demand observation. The moving average forecast method is used when demand has an observable trend or seasonality. Forecasting and the accompanying managerial decisions are extremely difficult when either the supply of raw materials or the demand for the finished product is highly unpredictable. Long-term forecasts have a larger standard deviation of error relative to the mean than short-term forecasts. The basis for all strategic and planning decisions in a supply chain comes from For push processes, a manager must forecast what customer demand will be in order to The result of each stage in the supply chain making its own separate forecase When all stages of a supply chain produce a collaborative forecast, it tends to be The resulting accuracy of a collaborative forecast enables supply chains to be Leaders in many supply chains have started moving Production can utilize forecasts to make decisions concerning Personnel can utilize forecasts to make decisions concerning Mature products with stable demand When either the supply of raw materials or the demand for the finished product is highly variable, forecasting and the accompanying managerial decisions One of the characteristics of forecasts is One of the characteristics of forecasts is Forecasts are always wrong and therefore Long-term forecasts are usually less accurate than short-term forecasts because Aggregate forecasts are usually more accurate than disaggregate forecasts because In general, the further up the supply chain a company is (or the further they are from the consumer), Forecasting methods that use historical demand to make a forecast are known as Forecasting methods that assume that the demand forecast is highly correlated with certain factors in the environment (e.g., the state of the economy, interest rates, etc.) to make a forecast are known as Forecasting methods that imitate the consumer choices that give rise to demand to arrive at a forecast are known as Qualitative forecasting methods are most appropriate when Which forecasting methods are the simplest to implement and can serve as a good starting point for a demand forecast? The goal of any forecasting method is to ________ forecasting methods assume that the demand forecast is highly correlated with certain factors in the environment (the state of the economy, interest rates, etc.). ________ forecasting methods are primarily subjective and rely on human judgment. ________ forecasting methods use historical demand to make a forecast. The multiplicative form of the systematic component of demand is shown as The additive form of the systematic component of demand is shown as The mixed form of the systematic component of demand is shown as A static method of forecasting In adaptive forecasting, The moving average forecast method is used when The simple exponential smoothing forecast method is appropriate when The trend corrected exponential smoothing (Holt’s Model) forecast method is appropriate when Use a simple moving average of three periods to forecast the demand for July. What is the forecast? Use exponential smoothing to forecast the demand for March. What is the forecast if α = 0.7? What is the level component of Holt’s model for period 0? The measure of forecast error where the amount of error of each forecast is squared and then an average is calculated is The measure of forecast error where the absolute amount of error of each forecast is averaged is The measure of forecast error where the average absolute error of each forecast is shown as a percentage of demand is The measure of whether a forecast method consistently over- or underestimates demand is The measure of how significantly a forecast method consistently over- or underestimates demand is Which of the following is a commonly used measure for measuring forecast error? The ________ is a good measure of forecast error when the underlying forecast has significant seasonality and demand varies considerably from one period to the next. Calculate the MAD for this scenario if the forecasts for periods 1-10 are in order, 176.6, 174.2, 176.1, 178.7, 160.4, 165.4, 177.7, 191.1, 191.0, and 175.2. Calculate the MSE for this scenario if the forecasts for periods 1-10 are in order, 176.6, 174.2, 176.1, 178.7, 160.4, 165.4, 177.7, 191.1, 191.0, and 175.2. What is the largest value for the tracking signal (either under or overforecasting) if the forecasts for periods 1-10 are in order, 176.6, 174.2, 176.1, 178.7, 160.4, 165.4, 177.7, 191.1, 191.0, and 175.2? What is the mean absolute percentage error if the forecasts for periods 1-10 are in order, 176.6, 174.2, 176.1, 178.7, 160.4, 165.4, 177.7, 191.1, 191.0, and 175.2? Use Solver to determine the alpha that minimizes the MAD for the ten period forecast for the data that appear in this table. Use the actual demand as the forecast for period 1 and then use exponential smoothing. |